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Trump’s Swing State Lead Shrinks, Bloomberg Poll Suggests

By Jonathan Draeger
Published On: Last updated 03/27/2024, 03:33 PM EDT

Former President Trump currently holds a lead in the RCP Polling Average in each of the seven most likely battleground states. However, a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll suggests that his lead might be diminishing in some states critical for the 2024 election.

The most significant decline compared to last month’s Bloomberg poll occurred in Pennsylvania, where Trump’s advantage over President Biden shifted from a six-point lead, 49%-43%, to a tie at 45%-45%. Other polls also indicate Pennsylvania is almost exactly evenly split, as the RCP Average for Pennsylvania shows Trump with only a slight edge over Biden, 47.4%-47.2%.

Another notable shift occurred in Wisconsin, where the Bloomberg survey indicated Biden was up one point over Trump, 46%-45%. Trump had been up four points in last month’s Bloomberg poll, 46%-42%, and currently leads in the RCP Average by 0.8 points, 48.3%-47.5%.

The other two states experiencing significant changes were Nevada and Michigan. In Nevada, Trump’s lead narrowed from six points in last month’s Bloomberg poll to two points in this poll. In Michigan, Trump’s advantage decreased from a two-point lead to a tie in this month’s poll. Despite these shifts, Trump continues to lead in the RCP Average in both states, with a 3.5-point advantage in Michigan and a three-point lead in Nevada.

In the other three swing states – Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona – Trump maintains a sizable lead. There was a slight decrease in North Carolina, where Trump’s lead was reduced from nine points in last month’s poll to six in the latest poll. In Arizona, his lead decreased by one point, from six to five, and in Georgia, his lead expanded from six to seven points. Trump continues to hold a significant lead in all these states in the RCP average: 4.4 points in North Carolina, 5.2 points in Georgia, and 5.2 points in Arizona.

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