Who Will Win Michigan?

Of the states Trump won in 2016, Michigan was the closest, as he won the state by only 13,080 votes. In 2020, Biden won the state by 2.8 points, and now polls indicate that the state is likely to swing in Harris’ direction.

The latest American Greatness/TIPP poll, conducted Aug. 20-22 during the Democratic National Convention, surveyed 741 likely voters and found Harris leading by 2 points in a head-to-head matchup. In the five-way race, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – who dropped out and endorsed Trump after the poll – her lead narrowed to 1 point, 46%-45%, with Kennedy at 5%. In another recent Michigan poll by Rasmussen, conducted Aug. 13-17, Harris led by 1 point in the head-to-head matchup and 3 points in the five-way race.

When Biden withdrew from the race, Trump led by 2.1 points in Michigan's RCP Average. Now, the race has flipped, with Trump trailing by 2 points in the two-way average and 2.3 points in the multi-way average. This polling lead is much smaller than in previous elections. On Aug. 26, 2016, Hillary Clinton led by 9 points in Michigan’s RCP Average, and in 2020, Joe Biden led by 4.8 points. 

One factor that could change things is Kennedy’s withdrawal from the race. A leaked analysis by the Trump campaign suggested that Kennedy dropping out benefitted Trump in every swing state. However, in Michigan, Trump only gained a net 2% of Kennedy’s 4% vote share, providing him with an insignificant bump in the state if the analysis is correct. 

Despite Harris’ lead in the state, Trump is still campaigning for Michigan's 15 electoral votes. On Monday, Trump addressed the National Guard Association's conference in Detroit, where former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard endorsed him.

While the presidential race is within a few points, the latest polls show Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin holding a larger lead in Michigan's Senate race. Slotkin, who has represented Michigan since 2019, is running to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. She faces former Rep. Mike Rogers, who represented Michigan from 2001 to 2015. 

The American Greatness Michigan poll showed Rogers trailing Slotkin by 10 points, while the Rasmussen poll had Slotkin ahead by 2 points. Previous polls placed her lead between 2 and 10 points, with her current lead at 5 points in the RCP Average. In the last Senate election in Michigan in 2020, Democrat incumbent Gary Peters beat Republican candidate John James by 1.7 points.

Betting markets reflect Slotkin's strength. While Harris leads, with a 62% chance of winning Michigan in November compared to Trump’s 39% in the Polymarket betting odds, Slotkin’s chances of winning the Senate seat are even higher at 76%.