Will Pennsylvania Support Trump?

Breaking from the trend of Democratic wins in every presidential election since Bill Clinton, Pennsylvania supported Trump in 2016 by a slim 0.7-point margin. Then the state flipped back to Democrats in 2020, supporting Joe Biden. Looking to November, polls indicate that the state could be shifting back toward Trump.

Earlier this year, the race in Pennsylvania was neck and neck, similar to other northern swing states such as Wisconsin and Michigan. Unlike other swing states that have consistently shown Trump in the lead, Pennsylvania saw multiple months with Biden leading in polls.

However, recent polls have indicated a growing lead for Trump in the state. The latest Marist poll, conducted June 3-6 with 1,181 registered voters, had Trump up 2 points over Biden in the five-way race, 47%-45%, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 3%, and independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each at 1%. The current RCP Average for the five-way race has Trump up 44.2%-41.2% over Biden, with Kennedy in a distant third at 6.7%, and West and Stein each at 1.3%.

The two-way race in the state hasn’t been polled since mid-May, but currently  Trump is ahead by 2.3 points, 47.8%-45.5%, in the RCP Average. This early summer polling lead for Trump in Pennsylvania is a divergence from polls in 2016 and 2020, where Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both had 4+-point leads at this point in the election season.

The other statewide election happening in November is the Pennsylvania Senate race. The incumbent and Democratic candidate is Sen. Bob Casey Jr., who has served as senator since 2007. In his most recent 2018 Senate election, he won the state by 13 percentage points, despite Trump’s win there two years earlier.

His opponent is Republican candidate David McCormick, who served as CEO of the investment management firm Bridgewater Associates until January 2022, when he started his first race for Senate in Pennsylvania, eventually losing the Republican Senate primary to Mehmet Oz. This year, he is running again and won the uncontested Republican primary on April 23. 

Despite Trump’s lead in the state, incumbent Bob Casey maintains a strong lead in polls. The recent Marist poll had Casey up 6 points, 52%-46%. Other polls find similar results, with Casey leading in the RCP Average for the race by 5 points, 47.4%-42.4%.