Will S.B. 4 Immigration Law Mobilize Migrant-Sympathetic Texans To Vote Blue?

New immigration law in Texas is making headlines this spring. The federal Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans heard oral arguments Wednesday in a Justice Department lawsuit alleging Senate Bill 4 is unconstitutional. The lawsuit says immigration is the sole purview of the federal government, while Texas officials say the federal government has been inept in border enforcement and that the state has a right to enforce its own border.

S.B. 4 would enable the Texas Department of Public Safety to arrest suspected illegal immigrants and allow state judges to deport undocumented people to Mexico, even if the immigrant is not Mexican. The legislation specifically prohibits enforcement at schools, hospitals, and churches, and is framed at targeting border security rather than interior control.

The last two times Republicans pushed laws targeting undocumented migrants in border states, the backlash flipped the states blue (California) and purple (Arizona). S.B. 4 has galvanized those activists who hope to protect immigrant families, and there has been some wishful thinking from the left that the law will mobilize migrant-sympathetic Texans to vote blue. 

Yet public concern about the border crisis suggests the retaliation seen west of Texas will not be replicated this time around. A recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll shows that 51% of all Americans think that “all immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally should be deported,” but that number jumps to 84% when Republicans alone are considered. While many of Texas’ border counties and large cities vote blue, the majority of Texans have voted Republican since 1980.

Immigration has consistently been named the first or second most important issue to voters in polls this year. An April Emerson poll shows that 22% of Americans think immigration is the top issue facing the country, making it second only to the economy (35%) as a matter of importance.

Even if the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals rules S.B. 4 unconstitutional, it is hard to see the bill losing in Texas’ court of public opinion.