Can Biden Flip North Carolina in 2024?

Former President Trump is currently leading President Biden in the key battleground states expected to be crucial in determining the next president, but North Carolina has emerged as a state where the tide could turn in the Democrats’ favor by November.

The RCP Average for North Carolina currently shows Trump up five points over Biden, 49.6%-44.6%. Yet, a recent Marist poll of 1,197 registered voters conducted March 11-14 suggests a narrower gap, with Trump ahead by just three points, 51% to 48%.

When factoring in third-party candidates – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent), Cornel West (independent), and Jill Stein (Green Party) – Trump's lead in North Carolina increases to 7.7 points in the RCP Average: Trump at 46%, Biden at 38.3%, and Kennedy at 6%, with Stein and West each garnering 1%. These results are subject to change, as the last poll that asked about all five candidates in the state was from last month, before North Carolinians voted in their primaries on March 5.

The state's electoral history, however, suggests outcomes can shift significantly as Election Day approaches. For instance, on March 20, 2016, Hillary Clinton led by one point in the RCP Average in North Carolina, yet Trump ultimately won the state by 3.6 points. A similar reversal occurred in 2020: Despite Biden's 3.4 point lead in the RCP Average in North Carolina on March 20, Trump secured victory again, albeit by a narrower margin of 1.3%.

A Democrat last won the presidential race in North Carolina in 2008, when Barack Obama narrowly defeated John McCain by 0.3 points. Democrat Beverly Perdue was elected governor of North Carolina that year as well, beating Republican Pat McCrory by 3.4 points.

This year’s gubernatorial race pits Democrat Josh Stein, the current attorney general, against Republican Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor. The Marist poll shows that although Trump leads in the presidential race, Stein leads Robinson by two points in the gubernatorial race. The Marist poll echoes the RCP Average for the gubernatorial race, which has Stein up 1.4 points over Robinson, 44.7-43.3%.