Trump's Lead Narrows in Polls as 2024 Race Tightens

In 2016, former President Donald Trump enjoyed a total of six days where he was ahead in the 2016 RCP Average. In 2020, President Joe Biden was ahead every single day in the 2020 RCP Average. Despite Trump’s early lead this year, the 2024 election polls are expected to be closely contested as his lead has dwindled to just 0.2 points in the RCP Average.

Earlier this year on Jan. 26, Trump’s lead over Biden peaked at 4.3 percentage points in the RCP Average. Last month, he was up 2.1 percentage points. Now, the polls indicate a virtual tie.

The current RCP Average for the national head-to-head matchup shows five polls that indicate Biden leading, four with Trump leading, and one tied. From Jan. 1 to March 1, there were a total of six polls that showed Biden ahead.

In both 2016 and 2020, the national polls appeared much different than they do today. On April 12, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 10.4 points in the RCP Average, and on April 12, 2020, Biden led by six points.

Despite the narrow margin in the head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden, Trump maintains a lead in polls that include third-party candidates. With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump’s lead expands slightly to 1.9 points in the RCP Average for the five-way race. 

He also has a more solid lead in most swing states. In the RCP averages for Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia, he leads by more than three points. In Michigan, his situation mirrors the national polls, with his lead dropping from 5.3 points in late January to 2.8 points now. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are currently toss-ups, with Biden up by 0.1 points in Pennsylvania and Trump up 0.6 points in Wisconsin. 

Looking at the electoral map, to win in November, Trump needs to keep all of the swing states where he currently leads by three or more points and secure at least one of the three northern swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. The current map has Trump in the lead 293-245, but if Wisconsin and Michigan switch to Biden, Biden would lead 270-268.