Wisconsin's Battleground: Split-Ticket Possible

Historically, Wisconsin leaned Democratic in presidential elections, supporting Democratic candidates from 1988 through 2012 and in 2020. However, despite polls indicating a win for Hillary Clinton, President Donald Trump carried Wisconsin by a narrow margin in 2016. Given close polls and recent close elections in the state, Wisconsin is still up for grabs for the 2024 Senate and presidential elections.

All the most recent presidential polls out of Wisconsin indicate a tight race. The most recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state poll, conducted May 7-13 with 693 registered voters in Wisconsin, found that Trump led Biden by only one point. Last week's New York Times/Siena swing state poll found similar results as Trump led by only two points among registered voters and one point among likely voters. The current RCP Average for the presidential election in Wisconsin mirrors the contested polls, with the race being effectively tied, as Trump has only a 0.1-point lead.

The race is similarly tight with third-party candidates: The NYT/Siena poll shows 40% support for Trump, 39% for Biden, 8% for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 1% for Green Party's Jill Stein, and 1% for independent Cornel West. The race was just as close in the Bloomberg poll, with Trump’s lead staying at one point over Biden. The RCP Average for the five-way race in Wisconsin has Trump at 41.5%, Biden at 40.7%, Kennedy at 9%, Stein at 2%, and West at 1.3%.

This contested race has both the Trump and Biden campaigns already organizing to win the 2024 elections. According to NewsNation, the Biden campaign, Wisconsin Democrats, and the DNC already have 46 field offices and 100 staffers in the state, and the Trump campaign plans to open 30 offices in conjunction with the Wisconsin GOP and RNC by June 1.

Both candidates have started visiting Wisconsin, with Biden most recently speaking in Racine to announce a $3.3 billion investment by Microsoft in an artificial intelligence data center. According to the White House, the data center will create 2,300 union construction jobs and 2,000 permanent jobs over time. This is likely to help Biden in the state, as a Quinnipiac poll from earlier this month shows the most urgent issue for Wisconsinites is the economy, followed by immigration and "preserving democracy in the United States."

Wisconsin Senate Race

Although Trump has a slight lead in the five-way race, Wisconsin has a history of splitting the ticket between Republicans and Democrats. For example, in 2022, incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers beat Republican businessman Tim Michels in the gubernatorial race by 3.3 points, but incumbent Republican Ron Johnson beat Democrat Mandela Barnes by 1 point in the state’s Senate race.

In this cycle, the Senate race has a high likelihood to split the ticket in Wisconsin, with polls indicating a small Republican win for the presidency but a large Democratic win in the Senate. Currently, the frontrunner in the Senate race is incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who has served as senator for Wisconsin since 2013 and was a representative for Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District from 1999 to 2013. Her opponent is Republican businessman Eric Hovde, who announced his candidacy in late February. 

The NYT/Siena poll indicates that Baldwin’s lead is substantial, with 49% supporting Baldwin and 40% supporting Hovde. The Quinnipiac poll was even more dire for Hovde, with only 42% supporting him and 54% supporting Baldwin. However, all hope is not lost for Hovde, as 50% of respondents in the Quinnipiac poll said they hadn’t heard enough about him, indicating support could go up as more people learn about him. However, he has some ground to make up to beat Baldwin’s current 6.8-point lead in the RCP Average for the Wisconsin Senate election. 

WI-08 Republican Primary

The other most contested election from the state is likely to be the 8th Congressional District Republican primary. The position was formerly held by Mike Gallagher, who announced he would not run for a fifth term in Congress and then resigned in April after being one of the deciding votes in stopping the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. 

The current two primary contenders are businessman Tony Wied and former Wisconsin State Sen. Roger Roth. There haven’t been any polls on the matchup since Wied announced his run on April 8, but Wied is likely ahead given he has been endorsed by Trump. Trump also attacked Roth in his endorsement of Wied, calling him a “RINO” and “no friend to MAGA.”