What 2025’s Results—and a New Youth Poll—Tell Us About 2026
What 2025’s Results—and a New Youth Poll—Tell Us About 2026
Carl M. Cannon
The political campaigns of 2025 are now in the books. Although the Republican Party finally held serve in a special congressional election in Tennessee, this autumn’s elections results in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City have given Democrats – mainstream party regulars and progressive activists alike – a little jaunt in their step going into 2026.
It’s a reminder to those prone to sweeping pronouncements about supposed Big Trends after a single election. Pundits and prognosticators who confidently consigned the Democrats to purgatory after Donald Trump’s decisive win in 2024 now look a bit overwrought. The same principle applies for those issuing confident predictions about the 2026 midterms.
This week, Harvard University’s Institute of Politics released the 51st edition of its youth poll. The results should give both major political parties pause. The national survey of 18-29-year-olds, the IOP reports, “reveals a generation under profound strain, as young Americans report deep economic insecurity, eroding trust in democratic institutions, and growing social fragmentation.”
For many under-30 voters, the 51st Harvard Youth Poll finds that “instability — financial, political, and interpersonal — has become a defining feature of daily life, shaping their outlook on the country and their own futures.”
I write these words from the skies over the Great American Heartland as I’m heading – along with RCP co-founder Tom Bevan – to Simi Valley for the annual Reagan National Defense Forum. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth will deliver the keynote address Saturday night – and he will do so at a time when the Trump administration’s foreign policy is coming under heightened scrutiny.
Jonathan Draeger has a related story below on a comprehensive survey of Americans on issues relating to war and peace – and the United States’ place in the world. On our Thursday podcast, Tom and Andrew Walworth and I also discussed this survey with Rachel Hoff, policy director at the Reagan Institute, which sponsored the poll.
Also, in today’s newsletter, Stanford University professor Dave Brady, one of America’s most astute political scientists, uses YouGov surveys of voters in New Jersey, Virginia, and Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to parse what voters in those three jurisdictions are telling the two major political parties heading into the New Year.
Hegseth Plan To Refocus Army Near Home Popular, Appetite for Intervention Persists
Jonathan Draeger
Since Sept. 2, the United States has attacked at least 22 vessels said to be ferrying drugs to the United States in international waters off the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, killing at least 83. Despite media controversy questioning the legality of these strikes, according to the latest poll from the Ronald Reagan Institute, it is among the most popular policies pursued by the Department of War under Secretary Pete Hegseth's leadership. Read what America thinks about other military policies.
On Dec. 4 in the first year of their second term, none of the last three presidents who reached a second term held strong approval ratings. Trump now sits at 42.4%, Barack Obama was at 40.1% on Dec. 4, 2013, and George W. Bush was at 41.5% on Dec. 4, 2005.
Texas Republican Senate Primary
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is effectively tied with Republican Sen. John Cornyn, trailing by just 0.3 points in the RealClearPolitics Average, 30.3% to 30%. Rep. Wesley Hunt follows at 20.5%. Since the primary will lead to a runoff if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, Hunt would likely back Paxton if eliminated, giving Paxton a significant advantage.
The ‘Wrong Track’ Electorate Is Giving Democrats an Edge
Dave Brady
As we enter 2026 – and next November’s critical midterms, the off-year contests in New Jersey, Virginia, and Tennessee give Democrats reason for optimism.
Votes for candidates in any year can come from only three sources: fellow partisans, independents, and defectors from the other party. In Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats essentially held serve while Republicans hemorrhaged support among independents – and their own ranks as well. Read more
From Thursday's Podcast, Rachel Hoff Discusses American Attitudes on Foreign Policy
State of Union
.
